Memory Chip ASP Growth Expected to Cool in Second Half
Sales of DRAM and NAND flash memory are both expected to set new records amid tight supply in 2017, though white hot growth in average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to cool through the end of the year, according to market research firm IC Insights.
DRAM ASPs are projected to increase by 63 percent this year, while NAND ASPs are expected to grow by 33 percent, according to IC Insights. These numbers would mark record ASP growth for each category, the firm said.
IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.) said it believes DRAM quarterly ASP growth peaked in the fourth quarter of 2016, but the firm expects to to continue growing through the third quarter before turning slightly negative in the fourth quarter, signaling the end of the cyclical upturn.
IC Insights expects flash memory capital spending to increase significantly in 2017, with nearly all of the new investment going toward 3D NAND flash memory technology. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology each plan to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years, and new Chinese players may enter the market, putting the likelihood of overcapacity in the market for 3D NAND over the next few year very high, IC Insights said.
The strong ASP growth expected for both DRAM and NAND flash this year means sales of both are forecast to rise to record highs despite the fact that DRAM unit shipments are actually expected to decline while NAND shipments are expected to increase by only about 2 percent, IC Insights said.
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