Moore’s Law’s End Reboots Industry

Release time:2017-06-27
source:EE Times

The expected death of Moore’s Law will transform the semiconductor and computer industries, said a panel of experts at an event marking the 50th anniversary of the Alan Turing award.

A basket of silicon, systems and software technologies will continue progress, but not at the same pace, they said. With no clear replacement for CMOS scaling, semiconductor and systems industries may be reshaped into vertical silos, they added.

“Moore’s Law said transistor density doubles every 18 months, something we maintained for 25 years, but it began slowing down to every two to three years around 2000-2005, and more recently we’re seeing doubling about every four years, so were reaching the end of semiconductor technology as we know it,” said John Hennessy, former president of Stanford University and author of a key text book on microprocessors.

Dennard scaling, a related observation that energy requirements scale as silicon shrinks, “already has been non-operational for 10-15 years, creating an era of dark silicon where we quickly turned to multicore processors,” Hennessy added.

Moore’s Law is really an observation about economics, not a law of physics. The question is whether we can find another aspect of physics that has a return on investment like CMOS, said Margaret Martonosi, a systems specialist at Princeton.

Insofar as “Moore’s Law is about a rate [of density scaling], it is dead because I think we are at the end of a predictable rate and in a few generation we’ll hit the limits of physics,” said Doug Burger, a distinguished engineer working on FPGA accelerators at Microsoft’s Azure cloud service.

“Moore’s Law gave us a free ride and that’s just about over so we are entering a wild, messy time and it sounds like a lot of fun,” Burger said.

“I think we still have a few more years” of CMOS scaling, said Norm Jouppi, a veteran microprocessor designer and lead of the team behind Google’s TPU accelerator. “Some apps will continue to see performance speed ups for next a decade but for others they will come more slowly,” he said.

Jouppi quipped that the industry is in denial about Moore's Law, like the vendor in the Monty Python dead-parrot sketch, who insists a bird is “not dead, it’s just resting.”

Online messageinquiry

  • Week of hot material
  • Material in short supply seckilling
model brand Quote
CD74HC4051QPWRQ1 Texas Instruments
TL431ACLPR Texas Instruments
TPS5430DDAR Texas Instruments
TPIC6C595DR Texas Instruments
TPS61021ADSGR Texas Instruments
TXB0108PWR Texas Instruments
model brand To snap up
TPS61256YFFR Texas Instruments
TXS0104EPWR Texas Instruments
TPS61021ADSGR Texas Instruments
TPS5430DDAR Texas Instruments
TPS63050YFFR Texas Instruments
ULQ2003AQDRQ1 Texas Instruments
Hot labels
Information leaderboard
  • Week of ranking
  • Month ranking
About us

Qr code of ameya360 official account

Identify TWO-DIMENSIONAL code, you can pay attention to

AMEYA360 mall ( was launched in 2011. Now there are more than 3,500 high-quality suppliers, including 6 million product model data, and more than 1 million component stocks for purchase. Products cover MCU+ memory + power chip +IGBT+MOS tube + op amp + RF Bluetooth + sensor + resistor capacitance inductor + connector and other fields. main business of platform covers spot sales of electronic components, BOM distribution and product supporting materials, providing one-stop purchasing and sales services for our customers.