Semiconductor Unit Shipments Exceeded 1 Trillion Devices in 2018

发布时间:2019-01-24 00:00
来源:IC Insights

Semiconductor units forecast to increase 7% in 2019 with IC units rising 8%, O-S-D units growing 7%.

Annual semiconductor unit shipments, including integrated circuits and optoelectronics, sensors, and discrete (O-S-D) devices grew 10% in 2018 and surpassed the one trillion unit mark for the first time, based on data presented in the new, 2019 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. As shown in Figure 1, semiconductor unit shipments climbed to 1,068.2 billion units in 2018 and are expected to climb to 1,142.6 billion in 2019, which equates to 7% growth for the year.  Starting in 1978 with 32.6 billion units and going through 2019, the compound annual growth rate for semiconductor units is forecast to be 9.1%, a very impressive growth figure over 40 years, given the cyclical and often volatile nature of the semiconductor industry.


Figure 1

Over the span of just four years (2004-2007), semiconductor shipments broke through the 400-, 500-, and 600-billion unit levels before the global financial meltdown caused a big decline in semiconductor unit shipments in 2008 and 2009.  Unit growth rebounded sharply with 25% growth in 2010, which saw semiconductor shipments surpass 700 billion devices. Another strong increase in 2017 (12% growth) lifted semiconductor unit shipments beyond the 900-billion level before the one trillion mark was achieved in 2018.

The largest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth during the timespan shown was 34% in 1984, and the biggest decline was 19% in 2001 following the dot-com bust.  The global financial meltdown and ensuing recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in both 2008 and 2009; the only time that the industry experienced consecutive years in which unit shipments declined.  The 25% increase in 2010 was the second-highest growth rate across the time span.

The percentage split of total semiconductor shipments is forecast to remain heavily weighted toward O-S-D devices in 2019 (Figure 2).  O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 70% of total semiconductor units compared to 30% for ICs.  This percentage split has remained fairly steady over the years.  In 1980, O-S-D devices accounted for 78% of semiconductor units and ICs represented 22%.  Many of the semiconductor categories forecast to have the strongest unit growth rates in 2019 are those that are essential building-blocks for smartphones, automotive electronics systems, and devices that are used in computing systems essential to artificial intelligence, “big data,” and deep learning applications.


Figure 2


According to the latest report by TrendForce - Breakdown Analysis of China’s Semiconductor Industry, the outlook for China’s semiconductor industry has been tampered since the second half of 2018 due to pessimistic economy worldwide and uncertainties brought by the China-U.S. trade war, although the industry managed to reach a total revenue of over 600 billion RMB in 2018. Looking ahead to 2019, the revenue of China's semiconductor industry is expected to reach RMB 729.8 billion, but the annual growth rate would slow down to 16.20%, the lowest in the past five years.According to Jeter Teo, Research Director at TrendForce, there would be several challenges for China's semiconductor industry in the coming year, including the global economic slowdown, the overall weak demand, the negative growth in global smartphone production volume, as well as the continued trade conflicts between China and the United States.However, as the Chinese government continues to seek self-sufficiency of chips and aims at reducing its dependence on foreign companies, the domestic semiconductor industry will keep growing. On the other hand, new applications will trigger increasing demand for semiconductors, driven by emerging technologies like AI, 5G, autonomous driving, electric vehicles, CIS, biometric recognition, Internet of Things, and edge computing.It is worth noting that, recent years have seen the rise of China's domestic IC design industry, which has played a key role in leading the development of China's semiconductor industry. The industrial structure has continued to be optimized as well. For 2019, the sector of IC design is expected to account for 40.62% of China's semiconductor industry, while IC manufacturing would account for 28.68%, IC testing and packaging would take about 30.7%.On the other hand, TrendForce’s data show that key sectors of the semiconductor industry are expected to register continued growth in revenue, with the growth rate of IC manufacturing reaching 18.58%, higher than 17.86% of IC design and 12% of IC testing and packaging. More than 10 new fabs for 12-inch wafer will enter production in China in 2019, while some 8-inch wafer fabs and the power semiconductor sector anticipate production expansion.
2019-01-25 00:00 阅读量:3787
According to the latest research by EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, the market of new energy vehicle will continue to grow steadily, driving the demand for xEV batteries, despite the slowdown in global automotive market since 2018. The global demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars is estimated to reach 155GWh in 2019, a growth of 63% from 95GWh in 2018.According to Duff Lu, senior research manager of EnergyTrend, China has become the world's fastest-growing market for new energy vehicles driven by the government’s subsidies and supporting policies. After a rapid growth in 1H18, the shipments of new energy cars in China slowed down in 2H18, moderating the demand in the xEV battery industry as well. However, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium-ion batteries used in new energy passenger cars in China will grow to 54GWh in 2019, a growth of nearly 80% from 30GWh in 2018.In terms of supply, the production capacity of xEV battery in China has surpassed 134GWh by the end of 2018, and has a chance to reach 164GWh in 2019. Amid the oversupply and phasing out of subsidies from the Chinese government, the industry has been faced with a reshuffle since the second half of 2018. Major manufacturers have grown stronger at the expense of the demise of smaller companies. Leading players like Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) and BYD continue to expand, while less competitive ones who rely too much on regional markets, such as OptimumNano Energy, may have to exit the market during the market reshuffle.EnergyTrend expects that, with new capacity entering operation in 2019, the xEV battery industry will become more concentrated. The top five battery manufacturers would continue to grow and become the major suppliers. Subsidies from the Chinese government will be phased out by 2020, but before that, the industry will still depend on the subsidies to cover their R&D costs for advanced battery technologies. Manufacturers need to continue the development of high energy density solutions, building up competitiveness, before the electric vehicle market enters the maturity stage.
2019-01-25 00:00 阅读量:4115
Global shipments of large thin-film transistor (TFT) liquid crystal display (LCD) panels rose again in 2018 despite concerns of over-supply in the market. In particular, area shipments increased by 10.6 percent to 197.9 million square metres compared to the previous year, driven by TV and monitor panels, according to IHS Markit.Fierce price competition in large 65 and 75-inch display panels was ignited as Chinese panel maker BOE started the mass production of the panels in 2018 at its B9 10.5-generation facility. “With BOE operating the 10.5-generation line, panel makers have become more aggressive on pricing since early 2018 to digest their capacity,” said Robin Wu, principal analyst at IHS. “Large panels are still more profitable than smaller ones.” Rising demand for gaming-PC and professional-purpose monitors boosted shipments of high-end, large panels. “Some panel makers have allocated more monitor panels to the fab, replacing existing TV panels, to make up for poor performance of that business,” Wu said.Demand for other applications, which include public, automotive and industrial displays, recorded the highest growth rates of 17.5 percent by area and 28.6 percent by unit. “Panel makers view these applications as a new cash cow that can compensate for the sharp price erosion in main panels for TVs, monitors and notebook PCs,” Wu said.LG Display led the area shipments of large display panels, with a 21 percent share in 2018, followed by BOE (17 percent) and Samsung Display (16 percent). BOE boasted the largest unit-shipment share of 23 percent, followed by LG Display (20 percent) and Innolux (17 percent), according to the Large Area Display Market Tracker by IHS Markit.Large TFT LCD panel shipment growth is expected to continue in 2019. The preliminary forecast for unit shipments of three major products indicates that panel makers will continue to focus on the monitor and notebook PC panel businesses, increasing shipments by 5.3 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, over the year, while shipments of TV panels are forecast to grow just 2.6 percent.In 2019, three new 10.5-generation fabs – ChinaStar’s T6, BOE’s second fab and Foxconn/Sharp’s Guangzhou line – are expected to start mass production. All of them are assigned to manufacture TV panels, further boosting TV panel supply. “As the TV panel business is predicted to remain tough, panel makers, who enjoyed relatively better outcomes with monitor and notebook PC panels in 2018, will likely focus on the IT panel businesses,” Wu said.
2019-01-24 00:00 阅读量:1587
Contract prices of server DRAM are expected to fall by more than 20% QoQ in 1Q19, steeper than the previous forecast of 15%, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. The demand outlook remains weak due to high inventory levels and seasonal headwinds. Moreover, uncertainties brought by the China-U.S. trade war would also lead to conservative demand.According to Mark Liu, senior analyst at DRAMeXchange, the main reason for steeper price fall lies in the difficulties in reducing inventory. The DRAM suppliers’ fulfillment rate has improved from 90% in 4Q18 to 120% in 1Q19, indicating an oversupply in the market. Currently, the major operators of data centers in North America are holding fairly high levels of server memory inventory that can cover the usage for at least 5 to 6 weeks, while OEMs’ current inventory can cover around 4 weeks. Based on the previous production plans of the companies, their inventory levels have apparently doubled the normal levels or even higher.In terms of demand, after enjoying two years of strong demand growth for server systems, the server DRAM market is now seeing a tapering of its own demand growth. Demand from the upgrade to Intel’s Purley platform has started to wear off; memory component orders have also been fulfilled; a pessimistic economic outlook and uncertainties brought by China-U.S. trade war may also affect the DRAM market. As the general demand outlook becomes more conservative in the first half of this year, data centers and other server DRAM clients are anticipating falling prices in the future and are thus less keen on stocking up on memory components.On the supply front, major DRAM suppliers plan not to expand their production capacity actively this year in the fear of worsening market outlook. They also slow down the migration to advanced processes and high-density chips (eg., 16Gb mono die), trying to offset the oversupply.In order to reduce the inventory faster, suppliers have started to negotiate DRAM contracts as monthly deals since 4Q18, instead of quarterly ones. The quarterly lock-in deals have changed into quantity-based bargains, due to capacity expansion and increasing pressure from sales. With the emerging trend of build to order and low price, contract prices of DRAM products would continue to slide.On the whole, DRAMeXchange believes that the demand for servers will recover since 2Q19, with increased shipments to Chinese data centers and branded server makers worldwide. If the inventory problems are properly solved, server DRAM price decline may be moderated in 3Q19 and 4Q19, bringing the annual price fall to almost 50%.
2019-01-23 00:00 阅读量:1428
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